Tulsa/Cinci Under 45.5 2.2% play

Both offensive numbers are inflated and even with a low total I like the under.  Since their top defense faced was in game 1, Cincinatti has rolled.  They managed only 24 points against Army, and Tulsa’s defense is a bit stronger in the numbers.  Since that game Cinci has luckily faced a defense that on average ranks 87^th in ypp defense, ypc defense and QB rating defense combined.  On the flip side the same is true for Tulsa who faced Oklahoma State in game 1, and then on average has faced 84^th ranked defense.

Against the two top offenses Tulsa held UCF and Tulane to 26 and 24 points.  Their offense against just one top defense was held to 7 points.  I’m not sure how many points Tulsa gets in this game.